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Calculating Returns of Investment – Formulas & Examples – 2

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Return Calculation

We have discussed about absolute returns, simple annualized returns & compounded annual growth rate in pervious article Calculating Returns of Investment – Formulas & Examples – 1. Return calculations looked so fare in previous article was done using value of investment at beginning and at the end of period. But it does not tell actual story in terms of comparison with other investment option. So we are herewith article explaining Rolling returns, relative returns, peer returns, IRR and XIRR.

Rolling Returns:-

Suppose someone has purchased two mutual funds, A and B, both purchased with NAV of 12 and both sold seven years later at NAV of 32 as shown in figure below.

Rolling Return

Absolute Returns and CAGR in this case is same

  • Point-to-point returns: Both have generated an absolute return of 100* (32-12)/32 =166.67%.
  • CAGR :CAGR calculation would also yield identical results, that is, 10.41%

Although CAGR is same you can see their respective performance-A is consistently rising whereas B, after showing a robust growth for the first four years, declines consistently after 2009. Clearly, A is a better choice, which you’d never know by relying on the point-to-point/CAGR return measures.

Rolling returns is nothing but dividing time frames in equal but small part and taking average of small period returns. This gives information about performance of asset class over time period.

We have come across HDFCFund: Sensex rolling return calculator this calculator can calculate rolling returns of Sensex from any date between 12 Nov 1997 to 12 Nov 2012.

But rolling period statistics have their limitations, too. By their very nature, they tend to put more weight on returns in the middle of the measurement period and less on those at either end.

Relative Return:-

Relative returns enable us to know the true return earned by the fund over and above the benchmark. It determines how the return of a given stock or fund compares to that of benchmark. This can be useful in making investment decisions. For example, if the stock you are holding achieves a return of 20 per cent, while the benchmark index say Nifty managed 15.58 per cent, then the stock has achieved a relative return of a +4.42 per cent. A stock that falls less than the benchmark in a falling market is considered to have done well, as it manages to contain losses for the investor.

Peer Returns:-

Suppose you invest in State Bank of India (SBI) and the stock increases in a year by 7%. Other banking stocks rise like HDFC Bank by 9% ICICI Bank by 6.5%, Punjab National Bank (PNB) by 5% and Banking Index by 6%. It means SBI has given better returns as compared to Banking Index and among its peers better than PNB but less than HDFC Bank and ICICI bank. Peer return helps in selection of investment within a particular sector or sub-group of an asset class such as banking stock in above example.

So far we focused on investing only one time. But How do you calculate your returns when you invest some amount every year/or at some time period and at the end you receive your money back or in between you get some dividend? That’s where you required IRR & XIRR.

Internal rate of Return(IRR):-

Suppose your invest 3,000 , 6,000 , 5,000 , 4,000 and 6,500 in 5 yrs and Get 36,000 at the end of 5 yrs , what is your Return ? Or you invested Rs 10,000 in the stock which gave 10% annual dividends. At end of 5 years you sell stock for 12,000 Rs. The return that is used in such cases is IRR or Internal Rate of Return.

IRR is Internal Rate of Return and it is used to calculate the returns given some amount at a fixed interval i.e. after every 3 months or after every 1 yr. The only thing which matters is that there should be equal distance between two installments.

IRR Calculation:-

Let’s try to find IRR in an Excel sheet, first enter the original amount invested. The amount invested should be represented by a ‘minus’ sign. In each cell enter the cash flows which received each year. Remember to include the ‘minus’ sign whenever you invest money. Now find out IRR by mentioning =IRR(values,[guess])

IRR

IRR for investment in this case is equal to 14% as shown in picture above.

External Internal Rate of Return (XIRR):-

If you make an investment in the beginning of the investment period and you receive cash flows that are ‘not’ necessarily periodic such as dividends offered on mutual fund units. In this case how would you calculate the return on your investment?  You can calculate returns by means of using powerful function XIRR of Excel.

XIRR Calculation:-

Suppose you invest 50,000 Rs in mutual funds and you get 500 Rs dividend at different interval and you sold these mutual funds at value of 51,000 Rs. Let’s try to find XIRR of this example using Excel.

In an Excel sheet, first enter the original amount invested. The amount invested should be represented by a ‘minus’ sign. In each cell enter the cash flows which received each period. Remember to include the ‘minus’ sign whenever you invest money. Now find out XIRR by mentioning =XIRR(values, dates,[guess])

XIRR

XIRR for investment in this case is equal to 4.89% as shown in picture above.

I hope I have done my job by explaining various ways to calculate returns. So next time before doing any investments please remember what you read here and apply your wisdom to calculate returns. Be smart investor, & take investment decision based on calculation and not assumptions.

Comments ? I would love to hear if these concepts mention here are of any use to you.

Calculating Returns of Investment – Formulas & Examples – 1

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investment retruns

We invest our money in various asset classes to earn returns. But most of us don’t know correct way to calculate returns. For example

  • Mr. Anil invested Rs 20,000 in a mutual fund and 2 years of holding it became Rs 40,000
  • Mr. Sunil invested Rs 50,000 in Gold for 6 years and it became Rs 4,00,000

Who has earned better returns? & what method we should use to calculate returns so that we do not end up comparing apple to oranges! We are herewith article showing correct ways to compare returns with formulas and examples.

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What is Return on Investment?

Return is the gain or loss in the value of an asset in a particular period. It is usually mentioned as a percentage.  The general rule is that the more risk you take, the greater the potential for higher return and loss. Return on investment has two basic components.

  • Interest and/or dividends, the income generated by the underlying investment.
  • Appreciation (Depreciation), an increase (decrease) in the value of the investment.

Why finding return on investment is important:-

  • Determining return on investment is an important part of investment review to know      whether your investments are on track and make appropriate adjustments.
  • Estimating a return on investment also helps in choosing among investment options – One should invest in Gold/Real Estate/Stocks/Mutual Funds/Fixed Deposits ?

Let’s learn about various kinds of returns!

Absolute return (Point to Point Returns): Absolute return is the increase or decrease that an investment achieves over a given period of time expressed in percentage terms. It’s calculated as follows:

Absolute returns = 100* (Selling Price – Cost Price)/ (Cost Price)

For example you invested in asset in February 2006 at a price of Rs 20000. And you sold the investment in November 2012 at the cost of Rs 42000. Absolute returns in this case will be:

Absolute returns = 100* (42000 – 20000)/20000 = 110%

This is most simple method to calculate returns but it does not consider time period.  That is where real catch is. Most of time this method produces a large number so people are impressed!

Simple Annualized Return: The increase in value of an investment, expressed as a percentage per year. Expressed as –

Simple Annualized Return= Absolute Returns/Time period.

Suppose investment of Rs 1,00,000 becomes 1,24,000 over three years.

Absolute return = 100* ( 124000 – 100000/100000 ) =24 %.

Simple annualized return = 24/3 = 8 %

Average Annual Return (AAR)

Average annual return (AAR) is the arithmetic mean of a series of rates of return. The formula for AAR is:

AAR = (Return in Period 1 + Return in Period 2 + Return in Period 3 + …Return in Period N) / Number of Periods or N

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Let’s look at an example. Assume that an investment XYZ records the following annual returns:

YearAnnual Return
200520%
200625%
200722%
2008-10%

 

AAR for the period from 2005 to 2008: = (20% + 25% + 22% -10%) / 4 = 57%/4 = 14.25%

AAR is somewhat useful for determining trends. AAR is typically not regarded as a correct form of return measurement and thus it is not a common formula for analysis.

Compound Annual Growth Rate or CAGR

CAGR is the year-over-year growth rate of an investment over a specified period of time. It’s an imaginary number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it grew at a steady rate.

Let’s assume you invested Rs 10,000 in Apr 2010 and by Apr 2011 your investment became Rs 30,000, by Apr 2012 it became Rs 15,000. What was the return on your investment for the period?

If you calculate absolute return than it is 50% & simple annualized return is 25%.

But this investment return has fluctuated over a period of time, so how to make estimation that if you have continued investing in same asset class it would have given better result or not. This is similar to saying that you went on a trip and averaged 60 km/hr. Whole time you did not actually travel 60 km/hr sometimes you were traveling slower, other times faster.

So CAGR is a way to smoothen out the returns, it determines an annual growth rate on an investment whose value has fluctuated from one period to the next. In that sense CAGR isn’t the actual return in reality.

Also Read – PPF Account Calculator Download

The formula to calculate CAGR is:

CAGR

CAGR Formula

So CAGR for above example is :

= ((15,000/10,000) ^ (1/2)) -1

= 22.47%

If the investment states that it had an 8% annualized return over ten years, that means if you invested on Apr 1, and sold your investment on Mar 31 exactly ten years later, you earned the equivalent of 8% a year. However, during those ten years, one year the investment may have gone up 20% and another year it may have gone down 10%. In the example if the investment Rs 10,000 would have grown at the rate of 22.47% every year and at end of two years it would be Rs 15,000 as shown in calculation below.

Year Initial Value GrowthFinal Value
110,0002,24712,247
212,247275215,000

 

Good and Bad of CAGR: CAGR is the best formula for evaluating how different investments have performed over time. Investors can compare the CAGR in order to evaluate how well one stock/mutual fund has performed against other stocks in a peer group or against a market index. The CAGR can also be used to compare the historical returns of stocks to bonds or a savings account. But the bad points of CAGR are:

  • CAGR does not reflect investment risk, and you must use the same time periods.
  • CAGR does not reflect volatility. Investment returns are volatile, they can vary significantly from one year to another. CAGR give the illusion that there is a steady growth rate even when the value of the      underlying investment can vary significantly.

Please remember that returns that we have looked at so far are using value of investment at beginning and at end of the period. But it does not tell the full story. So what is to be done in order to know full story.

Check out next article Calculating Returns of Investment – Formulas & Examples – 2 to know full story explaining Rolling Returns, Relative Returns, IRR and XIRR.

90 Famous Quotes by Warren Buffett

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The Oracle of Omaha Investor Guru, Warren Buffett is one of the wealthiest people in the world. Buffett uses extremely easy-to-understand language when referring to business and investments.

Many of his most thoughtful quotes are found in his annual letters to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, which are worth reading.  But some of his gems come from random interviews, speeches.

warren bufett quotes

I have compiled 90 best quotes from the Oracle of Omaha. If we’ve missed any of your favorites, let us know in the comments.

90 Famous Quotes by Warren Buffett

  1.  ‘Never invest in a business you cannot understand.’
  2. ‘Always invest for the long term.’
  3. ‘Buy a business, don’t rent stocks.’
  4. ‘Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.’
  5. ‘I really like my life. I’ve arranged my life so that I can do what I want.’
  6. ‘We will only do with your money what we would do with our own.’
  7. ‘If you don’t feel comfortable owning something for 10 years, then don’t own it for 10 minutes.’
  8. ‘I am a better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor.’
  9. ‘Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.’
  10. ‘The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the Active to the Patient.’
  11. ‘Stop trying to predict the direction of the stock market, the economy, interest rates, or elections.’
  12. ‘I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for ten years.’
  13. ‘I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.’
  14. ‘For some reason, people take their cues from price action rather than from values. What doesn’t work is when you start doing things that you don’t understand or because they worked last week for somebody else. The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it’s going up.’
  15. ‘We don’t get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we will wait, we’ll wait indefinitely.’
  16. ‘As Buffet said in the speech, “He’s not looking at quarterly earnings projections, he’s not looking at next year’s earnings, he’s not thinking about what day of the week it is, he doesn’t care what investment research from any place says, he’s not interested in price momentum, volume or anything. He’s simply asking: What is the business worth?’
  17. ‘Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.’
  18. ‘Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.’
  19. ‘When asked how he became so successful in investing, Buffett answered: ‘we read hundreds and hundreds of annual reports every year.’
  20. ‘When a management team with a reputation for brilliance joins a business with poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.’
  21. ‘Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise.  Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.’
  22. ‘Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they’re doing.’
  23. ‘Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.’
  24. ‘You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right – that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else.’
  25. ‘It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.’
  26. ‘The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule.’
  27. ‘Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.’
  28. ‘I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.’
  29. ‘Why not invest your assets in the companies you really like? As Mae West said, ‘Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.’
  30. ‘Our favorite holding period is forever.’
  31. ‘Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.’
  32. ‘Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.’
  33. ‘Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.’
  34. ‘The critical investment factor is determining the intrinsic value of a business and paying a fair or bargain price.’
  35. ‘Investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of even an outstanding company to catch up with the price they paid.’
  36. ‘Risk can be greatly reduced by concentrating on only a few holdings.’
  37. ‘It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.’
  38. ‘An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.’
  39. ‘Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised.’
  40. ‘In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.’
  41. ‘If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.’
  42. ‘Cash never makes us happy, but it’s better to have the money burning a hole in Berkshire’s pocket than resting comfortably in someone else’s.’
  43. ‘A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.’
  44. ‘I never buy anything unless I can fill out on a piece of paper my reasons. I may be wrong, but I would know the answer to that. “I’m paying $32 billion today for the Coca Cola Company because.” If you can’t answer that question, you shouldn’t buy it. If you can answer that question, and you do it a few times, you’ll make a lot of money.’
  45. ‘The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth.’
  46. ‘You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong.’
  47. ‘It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.’
  48. ‘You ought to be able to explain why you’re taking the job you’re taking, why you’re making the investment you’re making, or whatever it may be. And if it can’t stand applying pencil to paper, you’d better think it through some more. And if you can’t write an intelligent answer to those questions, don’t do it.’
  49. ‘Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.’
  50. ‘An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes.’
  51. ‘Do a lot of reading’ (On how to determine the value of a business)
  52.  ‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.’
  53. ‘The fact that people will be full of greed, fear, or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.’
  54. ‘You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing.’
  55. ‘I do not like debt and do not like to invest in companies that have too much debt, particularly long-term debt. With long-term debt, increases in interest rates can drastically affect company profits and make future cash flows less predictable.’
  56. ‘We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage our balance sheet.’
  57. ‘I always knew I was going to be rich. I don’t think I ever doubted it for a minute.’
  58. ‘Turnarounds seldom turn.’
  59. ‘If at first you do succeed, quit trying on investing.’
  60. ‘I don’t measure my life by the money I’ve made. Other people might, but certainly don’t.’
  61. ‘Anything can happen in stock markets and you ought to conduct your affairs so that if the most extraordinary events happen, that you’re still around to play the next day.’
  62. ‘You shouldn’t own common stocks if a 50 per cent decrease in their value in a short period of time would cause you acute distress.’
  63. ‘With few exceptions when a manager with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor economics, it is the reputation of the business which remains intact.’
  64. ‘The business schools reward complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.’
  65. ‘It’s not debt per say that overwhelms an individual corporation or country. Rather it is a continuous increase in debt in relation to income that causes trouble.’
  66. ‘A great investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous business encounters a one-time huge, but solvable problem.’
  67. ‘You do not adequately protect yourself by being half awake when other are sleeping.’
  68. ‘We like to buy businesses, but we don’t like to sell them.’
  69. ‘Money to some extent sometimes let you be in more interesting environments. But it can’t change how many people love you or how healthy you are.’
  70. ‘It’s us fun being a gorse when the tractor comes along, or the blacksmith when the car comes along.’
  71. ‘Enjoy your work and work for whom you admire.’
  72. ‘With enough insider information and a million dollars, you can go broke in a year.’
  73. ‘Read Ben Graham and Phil Fisher read annual reports, but don’t do equations with Greek letters in them.’
  74. ‘In a commodity business, it’s very hard to be smarter than your dumbest competitor.’
  75. ‘A hyperactive stock market is the pickpocket of enterprise.’
  76. ‘Valuing a business is part art and part science.’
  77. ‘Chains of habits are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.’
  78. On Earning: “Never depend on single income. Make investment to create a second source.”
  79. On Spending: “If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need.”
  80. On Saving: “Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving.”
  81. On Risk: “Never test the depth of river with both the feet.”
  82. On Investment: “Do not put all your eggs in one basket.”
  83. On Expectation: “Honesty is very expensive gift. Do not expect it from cheap people.”
  84. “Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1”
  85. “I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.”
  86. “Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.”
  87. “Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results.”
  88. “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything–you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!'”
  89. “You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.”
  90. “The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.”

Gold gives 670% returns in 10 years – Diwali to Diwali

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Diwali Special

Wishing you Happy Diwali & Happy New Year, on this special occasion of Diwali I thought to write something different and I am herewith article on return given by Gold Diwali to Diwali in past 10 years.

Buying gold and silver is considered to be auspicious in most of the festival especially on Akshay Tritiya,  Dashreaa, Dhanteras and Diwali. Even jewelers project gold in different manner during festival season.  Jewellery houses offers attractive discounts and other such schemes to lure the customers. Some have gone a step further and are offering discounts on the making charges as well.

We usually hear in advertisement that “Dimond is forever” but for Indian market if we see craziness about gold than for us “Gold is forever” seems to be super hit.

Gold sales remains good throughout year but when festival season starts gold breaks record in terms of purchase demands. Its seems to be true this year also, although gold price was nearby 32,000 Rs/- per 10 gm on Dhanteras, it has not affected demand and people has purchased gold like anything. Gold is considered as safe haven. Gold investment also helps in bad financial situation that is the reason people don’t hesitate in purchasing gold even at higher price. I am herewith facts and figures about gold return in past 10 years from Diwali to Diwali.

Diwali to Diwali Return of Gold (10 Years):-

Every year we purchase gold on Diwali or Dhanteras do we calculate that how much return   gold gave year on year?, I am herewith calculation showing past 10 years gold returns from 2002 to 2012 YOY (Diwali to Diwali).

Gold Return

If you calculate overall return than it is 670%, Gold was costing just 4900 Rs/- per 10 gm in 2002 and now it is 32800 Rs/- per 10 gm.  Meaning if you have purchased gold of 100000 Rs/- in 2002 than its price now (2012) is 670000 Rs/-. This type of return seems to extra ordinary and other asset class may not give similar return in 10 years.  If you carefully look at graph gold has become bullish from 2007 and from 2007 to 2011 Gold has given return of 32.7%, 23.5%, 22.8% and 36.70% respectively.

This is the period where stock market has started declining. From 2002 to 2008 people were investing money in stock market but declining stage from 2008 has change mindset of investors and people started investing in gold. This increase in demand and downturn in International economy during that period was prime reason for increase in gold price.

Once again this year people have shown added interest in purchasing Gold. That is the reason country’s top two exchanges BSE and NSE recorded a total turnover of over Rs 2,200 crore in gold ETF on Dhanteras – an auspicious occasion for gold buying as per Hindu tradition. Along with Gold ETF investor has purchased Gold coins instead of gold jewelry in record quantity.

Although Gold is trading on record price of 32,000 Rs/-,  Investors are still investing in gold because investor knows that investment in gold is secure as it gives return like 670% in 10 years which is difficult to achieve from other asset class.