We keep on receiving email asking about forecast of gold price, so we thought to write article on latest gold forecasts by analysts. We will regularly extend this forecast list with new predictions for the price of gold. Please send us a short email, if we miss a gold price forecast by a renowned institution or analyst and we will surely include it.
Goldman Sachs predicts turn in gold bull cycle in 2013
Dec 6, 2012 – Goldman Sachs
Goldman cut its three, six and 12-month forecasts for gold prices – currently near $1,700 an ounce – to $1,825 an ounce, $1,805 an ounce and $1,800 an ounce respectively.
It also introduced a 2014 forecast of $1,750 an ounce, suggesting price growth could tail off. In a 12-month forecast released in May, it predicted a gold price of $1,940 an ounce.
“Medium term… the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in real rates on better US economic growth,” Goldman Sachs said in a report.
“Our expanded modelling suggests that the improving US growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013.”
The bank added however, that with risks to its growth outlook still elevated, especially given the uncertainty around the fiscal cliff, calling a price peak was “a difficult exercise.”
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Trend |
|
2013 |
US$ 1,800 |
|
|
2014 |
US$ 1,750 |
|
BNP Paribas cuts 2013 gold price forecast, but still expects gold price to rise
November 16, 2012 – BNP Paribas / Anne-Laure Tremblay
The global bank lowered its gold price forecast for 2012 by US$10 to $1,675 and its 2013 outlook by US$35 to US$1,865 per ounce, saying the impact of the latest round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve has not been felt so far.
“In 2013, gold could break its previous record high, but the potential for further upside may be limited thereafter,” analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay said in a note. According to the analyst, the timing of the gold price peak will be closely linked to the rate of improvement in the G3 economies.
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Gold price Forecast Rupee /10 gm | Trend |
|
2012 |
US$ 1,675 |
30,720 Rs |
 |
|
2013 |
US$ 1,865 |
34,200 Rs |
 |
Gold price to rise to US$ 2,000 according to Deutsche Bank
November 14, 2012 – Deutsche Bank/ Raymond Key
Raymond Key, global head of metals trading at Deutsche Bank In London, expects a gold price rally to a record level above US$ 2,000 per ounce by next year. This prediction is based on the assumption that more money will be printed in order to sustain the economic recovery with stimulus.
According to Mr. Key, the rally is becoming more mature and the outlook for gold is pretty positive but people shouldn’t expect too much.
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Gold price Forecast Rupee / 10 gm | Trend |
|
2013 |
Above US$ 2,000 |
Above 36,680 Rs |
|
Source: Bloomberg
London Bullion Market Association predicts gold price of US$ 1,843 by September 2013
November 13, 2012 – LBMA
At the annual conference of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) participants estimated the gold price to reach US$ 1,843 by September 2013. This price would equal a rise of about 6.7% from current levels. As drivers for this rise of the gold price increased demand from Asia and especially China as well as further monetary easing in the United States were cited.
More than half of the conference participants expect another round of quantitative easing in the U.S. and 56% forecast China’s economy will grow by 7-8% next year.
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Gold price Forecast Rupee / 10 gm | Trend |
|
Sept 2013 |
US$ 1,843 |
33,804 Rs |
|
Gold price rally to continue in 2013 according to HSBC
October 22, 2012 – HSBC/ James Steel and Howard Wen
HSBC analysts James Steel and Howard Wen lowered their 2012 forecasts for the average gold price to US$ 1,700 but increased their average price forecast for 2013 to US$ 1,850/oz. They also raised their average gold price forecast for 2014 to US$ 1,775/oz.
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Gold price Forecast Rupee / 10 gm | Trend |
|
2013 |
US$ 1,850 |
33,932 Rs |
|
|
2014 |
US$ 1,775 |
32,557 Rs |
|
Credit Suisse predicts gold price of US$ 1,840 in 2013
October 12, 2012 – Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse, the global investment bank, has raised its gold price forecast for 2013 to US$ 1,840 per ounce. CS also raised its forecasted gold price for the year 2014 to US$ 1,750. According to Credit Suisse, more quantitative easing in the U.S., a risk of a rating cut of the U.S. credit rating and higher demand from China and India are the key drivers for the change in the forecasted price of gold.
Credit Suisse leaves its gold price forecast for 2012 at US$ 1,680 per ounce.
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Gold price Forecast Rupee / 10 gm | Trend |
|
2013 |
US$ 1,840 |
33,749 Rs |
|
|
2014 |
US$ 1,750 |
32,098 Rs |
|
UBS sees average gold price of US$ 1,700 for 2012 and rise to US$ 1,900 in 2013
October 11, 2012 – UBS
The Swiss based investment bank UBS has raised its 2012 average forecasted gold price to US$ 1,700. For 2013 UBS predicts a gold price of US$ 1,900 per ounce.
UBS cites a U.S. recovery, inefficient mine production in South Africa and the open-ended nature of quantitative easing as drivers for a rise of the gold price.
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Gold price Forecast Rupee / 10 gm | Trend |
|
2012 |
US$ 1,700 |
31,181 Rs |
|
|
2013 |
US$ 1,900 |
34,850 Rs |
|
Coutts analyst expects gold price to rise to US$ 2,000 in coming months
October 10, 2012 – Coutts/ Gary Dougan
A senior executive of Coutts – the private banking arm of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) – expects the gold price to increase towards US$ 2,000 per ounce in the next months. According to Gary Dougan, who is Coutts’ chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East, medium-term drivers such as net purchases by central banks of emerging market countries would be drivers for an increase of the gold price.
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Gold price Forecast Rupee / 10 gm | Trend |
|
Next Few months |
US$ 2,000 |
36,680 Rs |
|
Source: Reuters
Deutsche Bank raised its gold-price outlook for 2013 and 2014
October 2, 2012 – Deutsche Bank/ Michael Lewis
Deutsche Bank expects that the balance sheet expansions by central banks and the resulting higher demand for gold from investors will result in a rising gold price. Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast to US$ 2,113/oz in 2013 and US$ 2,000/oz by 2014.
According to Deutsche Bank, due to the announcement of an open-ended quantitative easing program by the Federal Reserve, a surge of the gold price is only a matter of time.
| Time Frame | Gold price Forecast US$ /oz | Gold price Forecast Rupee / 10 gm | Trend |
|
2013 |
US$ 2,113 |
38,756 Rs |
|
|
2014 |
US$ 2,000 |
36,680 Rs |
|
So on and average most of analyst believes that gold price will remain bullish in next 2-3
years.
Note:- Rupee value of gold in above article is calculated with taking dollar value -52 Rs/- . This cost will vary based on fluctuation of dollar rupee value.
